NSW redistribution & NSW state election

The Australian Electoral Commission has released draft NSW boundaries. In the country we see a return in one aspect to the pre-1977 formula. Macquarie takes Lithgow and Bathurst out of Calare which would probably make it a Labor seat in most years (like Hunter today) as it was before 1977 (Labor only narrowly lost it in 1975) . The new Calare however including Orange and parts to the west becomes once again a conservative electorate, although Labor held Calare 1983-96 this was when it included Bathurst and Lithgow, prior to that 1943 was the last time they won. The problem for Peter Andreen, the sitting Calare independent, is whether to go for Macquarie and hold it against Labor or to fight the Nationals in the new Calare. On first glance I think he would do best in Macquarie. The Nationals lose Gwydir. In Sydney it is perhaps disappointing for Labor, Greenway sheds its Labor end around Blacktown into Parramatta, looks like Parramatta becomes safe Labor, but Greenway becomes a safe Liberal seat (as it will include the Macquarie towns containing buildings designed by Francis Greenway perhaps this makes sense). However Lindsay is pushed into St Marys which would assist Labor. The fact that the Parramatta CBD is in Reid will cause confusion. It would make more sense to rename Reid 'Parramatta' and perhaps save the name Reid by giving it to the electorate including Blacktown and North Parramatta, alternately this seat could be Greenway and a new name found for the Windsor-Richmond-Mcmansion belt seat.

The SMH reports a list of 15 'watch seats' identified by NSW Labor as vulnerable for the state election next year. Unfortunately there is no complete list. The first is Murray-Darling. This is on paper a National seat after the redistribution, true the sitting MP has resisted unfavourable redistributions in the past, and it is a pattern that the Labor vote in areas removed from National seats can usually be improved by a campaigning MP, but Labor did very poorly in Broken Hill (its vote falling below 60%) at the 2004 federal election, due to problems with the state government particularly the abolition of the Far West health service, which sparked a protest of 2000. Another example of Labor’s problem with its heartland rather than the margins. The watch list also includes Ryde, as I have thought the 14.8% margin here is rather misleading.