Thursday, August 10, 2006

Connecticut lessons

The Connecticut result has attracted attention even in Australia. It is an exceptionally poor performance by an incumbent senator. Lieberman became the focal point of much angst and anger that should have been spread more broadly perhaps, I wouldn't hold his ignorance of popular music against him for example. I agree with Reed Hunt on what Lamont should do:
You need to go on TV right away to start selling who you really are. This is gut check time. What is in front of you now dwarfs what you just did. Now is when you win. I don't mean you didn't do well: you were fantastic. But the last couple of days showed fatigue and lack of focus. You have to rally. You have to go on the attack. Now.
The geographical distribution of the vote was fairly even as shown by map, but Lamont's support did correspond with more affluent areas and an analysis of exit polls at Political Arithmetik backs this up, however income does not have a huge impact. Blacks were more likely to back Lamont and this would have reduced the effect of income. Are there lessons here for the Democrat pursuit of the white working-class? Lieberman did have the unenthusiastic endorsement of the AFL-CIO. It is less that Lieberman uniquely appealed to lower-income Democrats than they stuck with the incumbent. It is an overstatement to present this as a triumph of the latte belt and high income voters are more likely to vote in November anyway. But on a national level it would be an equal overstatement to see what one of the net roots described as:
However, with the victory of Ned Lamont this week, the momentum has begun to change. Whereas once the more progressive Senators had to worry about being outflanked to the right -- a sign of the rightward drift of American politics over the past several years -- now overly hawkish and regressive Democrats will have to worry about losing the party base. If ever there were proof of ascendency of progressivism, this is it.

The Republicans can’t be defeated by falling to their level of demagogy. Real answers are required to security fears. It seems agreed that the Republican Senate candidate is very weak. The threat to Lamont comes from Lieberman as an independent. How far could he squeeze the Republican vote? A lot I think given that Americans often vote for candidate over party, how else could the Republicans win Maine and the Democrats Nebraska?
PS: the first poll on Lamont is better than I expected, he trails Lieberman 40 to 43, so long as he remains focused he should win from here.


At 3:32 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Where did you find it? Interesting read » » »


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