Friday, June 30, 2006

Aspirational voters?

Writing a paper on self-employment and politics and have been through the Australian Election Studies 1966-2004 (accessed from ASSDA), and broken the left vote (= Labor, Greens & Democrats in the Representatives) down by employment type: self-employed, private sector, government and farm/family business.


Self

Private

Government

Family/Farm

1996

25 (n=287)

49(n=761)

57 (n=351)

22 (n=72)

1998

34(n=309)

49 (n=759)

55 (n=403)

34 (n=47)

2001

36 (n=296)

48 (n=856)

58 (n=394)

33 (n=73)

2004

29 (n=261)

46 (n=742)

60 (n=440)

30 (n=50)


By occupation:


Professional

Clerical

Trade

Unskilled

1996

44 (n=640)

44 (n=207)

42(n=382)

55 (n=206)

1998

40 (n=618)

55 (n=177)

51 (n=436)

53 (n=234)

2001

45 (n=702)

48 (n=158)

46 (n=448)

58 (n=249)

2004

45 (n=738)

49 (n=118)

48 (n=409)

50 (n=191)


Cross-classifications have small sample sizes, but interesting to see that the left shift among professionals since 1996 has been entirely among government (and perhaps self-employed) professionals, private sector professionals have moved to the right. The number of self-employed tradespeople is small but since 1996 Labor has made up ground. Labor's 2004 problem was less with aspirationals than its heartland.

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