Thursday, September 07, 2006

Queensland election

The consensus seems to be an easy Labor victory in Queensland. I have my doubts as I have argued on the Pollbludger here and here. Labor is seen as performing badly on health, and health affects everyone. Much has been made of the bad Coalition campaign but how much does this actually influence voters, as distinct from the pundits? There are still voters to decide and I think they will break against Labor. Betting markets should pick this up but as they become more popular I think they follow the polls. I see opinion poll fetishism in the current analysis, a government in power for 8 years and with its record under challenge will lose ground. I actually think Beattie is the best of the current crop of Labor premiers but that is not saying much. If Labor holds Toowoomba North and Bundaberg I will be happy, these are my surprise predictions. I doubt Nita Cunningham had much of a personal vote in Bundaberg judging by the 2004 swing so I think Labor's margin is healthier than it looks for the retirement of a sitting member. After Cheryl Dorron being so unlucky in Hinkler in 1998 and 2001 it would be good to see a female member of the left win in the Bundaberg region. Toowoomba North might be the Labor equivalent of Keppel in 1992-2001; as well Toowoomba is being pulled into the Brisbane orbit.


At 10:28 PM, Anonymous Toowoomba resident said...

If Labor retains Toowoomba North I won't be happy.

Kerry Shine has done nothing for Toowoomba North and Highfields. Plenty of empty promises.

At least Lyle Shelton gives a damn about people in Toowoomba.


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