Tuesday, February 06, 2007

Giuliani and the conservatives

Rudy Giuliani’s filling of a statement of presidential candidacy has made it to the Australian media. He is the object of debate in the American media, despite leading in many polls of Republican supporters as their preferred presidential candidate, some commentaries rule him out, in particular because they presume that his support of civil partnership rights for gays (not marriage however) and his personal pro-choice position, not to mention his two divorces would him unacceptable to the conservatives who actually turn out to vote. In some aspects he is the Republican version of Clinton potentially popular with swinging voters and moderates generally but problematic to many party loyalists. Even his New York achievements that his conservative backers emphasise (see along defence of him here): reforming government, zero-tolerance policing, cutting welfare etc. have Clintonian overtones. But lately there is the suggestion that conservatives might, provided he can finesse his position sufficiently on some key issues (for some advice on how to do this see here), prefer him to McCain because of his record of loyalty to the Republican leadership, McCain's position on immigration and his potentially greater delectability than any of the other non-McCain candidates. Comments on the blog of the Posneresque Ann Althouse suggest some support among conservatives on these lines. Would a Giuliani nomination confirm that the influence of social conservatives in the Republicans is overstated? Or that Republican moderates will always have to bow to social conservatives eventually? Somewhere in between but closer to the later.

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