A Muslim party? 1920s lessons

NSW politics looks more like the 1920s everyday. Now we the unfortunate Sheik Taj Din al-Hilali flagging a Muslim party. Largely working-class, socially excluded and culturally marginalised many Australian Muslims have tended to Labor. Here their position resembles Catholics earlier this century that tended to Labor. But the Catholic-Labor nexus was always viewed with doubt by some Catholics, who complained that Labor did nothing for specifically Catholic concerns, in particular funding Catholic schools. These Catholics mobilised as the 'Catholic Federation', they hoped that if Catholics could prove themselves to be swinging voters than governments would respond to their demands. In 1913 the Catholic Federation endorsed the Liberal opponent of Labor Premier William Holman in his heavily Catholic Cootamundra electorate. Holman won easily, helped by his support for Irish Home Rule. Evatt describes the battle here. The conscription battle brought Labor and Catholic activists again together but in 1920 the catholic Federation organised a 'Democratic Party'. Although Michael Hogan describes it as a one issue party focused on aid for catholic schools, the federation president P. S. Cleary tried to develop a Catholic alternative to Labor's socialism based on the papal encyclicals. It polled 2.4% overall and won about a quarter of the catholic vote in the electorates it contested but won no seats. With fewer candidates it polled only 1.7% in 1922 but won one seat. These were probably from white-collar Catholics. The party encouraged a counter mobilisation by Protestants and Catholic leaders conceded defeat in their attempt to win Catholics from Labor (see Hogan's chapters on the 1920 and 1922 elections here). However the anti-Lang Federal Labor Party in 1930-35 had the support of some catholic intellectuals including Cleary. But italso failed to crack the hold of the majority Labor party on Catholic votes. I suspect a specifically Muslim party would be as unsuccessful as the Democratic Party.

Texas and the future of Australian politics

This week a delayed Congressional election, saw Democrats win a further seat in Congress in Texas on the Mexican border (map from here) with candidate Ciro Rodriguez over Republican Henry Bonilla. He had been the only Mexican American Republican in Congress but some called him a 'coconut', brown on the outside and white on the inside. The election was a run-off from the earlier national elections as neither candidate had an absolute majority then. Nevertheless the Republican incumbent had polled 48% on November 7 and the rest of the vote was split between several Democrats and an Independent with the highest vote being for Bonilla at only 20%. But Rodriguez won with 54%, this is a pretty impressive performance and he is a former social work academic. In part it reflects the collapse of Republication morale since the elections, and a reaction against Republican advertising that accused Rodriguez on being linked to Islamic terrorists. But the seat is majority Hispanic and Republican support for immigration restriction and the border fence was a major issue. Texas will become steadily more Hispanic in future years leading the American trend. The association of the Republicans with nativism may become increasingly counter-productive, even if a majority of voters express nativist views, those to whom the issue is central are more to be migrants and they will vote against the Republicans. This is the 'mobilisation of the base' strategy that the Republicans have used, but now it works against them. Even the ultra-conservative Human Events admits that:
Bonilla was also slightly harmed, and certainly not helped, by his embrace of the conservative position on the border security and immigration issue. Once again, it proved woefully ineffective in bringing out white voters, and whatever-sized effect it had among Hispanic voters -- who make up more than 60 percent of the new district -- it was a negative effect. Bonilla lost counties in the second round that he had never lost in any previous election. This race has implications for Republican hopes to win the Hispanic vote in the future.
Could Texas go blue as some speculate? Not soon but perhaps in the future. A similar situation may arise in Australia, despite the conservatives' best efforts in the silly citizenship test; the ethnic composition of the Australian electorate will change at an increasing rate into the future. The ethno-cultural politics of the right may become a liability rather than an asset. It is already the major reason for the marginality of John Howard's seat.

Greens, leftists and socialists

Lost far at the back of the pack in the Victorian election was Socialist Alliance. Launched with hopes of an electoral breakthrough to the left of the ALP. Now the Greens have monopolised these terrain, but this is not inevitable. But at the recent Dutch election the Socialist Party whose origins lie in Maoism won 26 seats on a platform that condemned the Dutch Labour Party for moving too far to the right. GreenLeft, the Dutch Greens (the 'left' comes from fact that the Communist Party of the Netherlands was a founding constituent of the party) won only 7 seats. The Socialist Party is one of the many 'left socialist' parties in Europe that have emerged since the collapse of communism. GreenLeft and the Socialists compete for the left vote, but the Socialists seem to be winning this battle. Radio Netherlands comments:
However, the SP has also modified a number of key points from its earlier election manifestos. The party was always opposed to NATO and the Dutch monarchy and called for both to be abolished - a stance which has now changed. The SP remains basically opposed to both, but is no longer calling for their immediate abolition. The party's support base has grown considerably and now includes people from all layers of society. One major change in policy which has played a role in this respect was the abandonment of the idea that rich people should pay income tax at a rate of 72 percent. Ewout Irrgang, mathematical genius and an MP for the SP, has described such old standpoints as 'symbolic politics' which did nothing to advance the party's cause. The GreenLeft party finds itself having to work harder to attract votes in this election campaign. The party ...has lost much support as a result of the current course being following by party leader Femke Halsema. Under her leadership the party has shifted somewhat towards a more liberal free-thinking approach. Ms Halsema has called for more individual freedom, personal development and emancipation. Currently the only female leader of a political party in the lower house of parliament, she describes her party as the only left-wing liberal party. Remarkably, Femke Halsema was recently proclaimed 'liberal of the year' by the youth organisation of the conservative VVD party (which is itself described as 'liberal' in Dutch).

Here we see an example of why the Australian Greens have been unable to crack key components of Labor's core as shown by their failure to win lower house seats in the Victorian election, still they have suceeded in the easy task of getting more working class votes than Socialist Alliance.

Nationals, Greens & Elaine

Nationals a good performance overall, although outside their northern heartland poor, they ran behind Families First in Warrnambool. Since 1999 party has striven to develop independent identity, perhaps 1999 victory in Benalla a first sign. Water and environmental management issues can be new point of city-country tension. Strong Nationals performances in Benalla and Morwell influenced by water issues, Lake Mokkan in the later. But how compatible is this National approach with the aspiration to be in a Coalition government with the Liberals? Would a Liberal government impose harsher water restrictions in Melbourne to free up water for farmers? Doubtful. Thus the Nationals reject the idea of a Coalition in opposition although this is sought by some Liberals. But hard choices with have to faced if Labor loses a majority. Greens disappointing again, blaming Peter Garrett is bizarre but they were even doing this in conversation on the polling booth in Warrnambool and in blog comments. They have a constituency but it has peaked in the short-term. Friendly advice: drop this Melbourne obsession and focus on wining more Legislative Council seats. The quest for an Assembly seat has involved massive resources and questionable touchy-feely with the Liberals (not to support Labor's demagogic and dishonest campaign agaisnt the Greens either). Even if the Greens did fluke a lower house seat (and somewhere they eventually will) it unlikely they could hold balance of power, whereas they will come close to this in the Council. Speaking of the Council personal vote of 2504 for Elaine Carbines a rebuff to great minds of Labor Unity who dumped her from top of ticket. Victory for older women in politics. in Western Victoria we contemplate with horror the prospect that Labor preferences may elect a member of the DLP over the Greens.

Anthony Downs and Victorian politics

The American elections were a crash and burn for the strategy of polarisation and 'mobilizing the base', but maybe the Victorian elections will show that the opposite strategy of tacking to the centre may have problems also. Victorian Liberals are making progress in the polls. So far a good opposition performance, reminiscent of Bob Carr in 1991 and 1995 and likely to be as problematic in government as promises prove impossible to deliver. If you tack to the centre will the opposition eventually work out how to do the same and win? David Cameron's good poll performance in UK is an example. My thinking influenced by a very interesting book Redeeming the Communist Past on the political adaptation of former Communist parties in Eastern Europe. On one hand a bit depressing, mostly the road to political success for these parties has been through a Downsian pursuit of the middle ground and a mass party membership just gets in the way of this. Czech voters frightened off when door-knocked by elderly Communists who thought life had been great before 1989. But the author does argue that it can be rational for a party to develop on some aspects a distinctive position, even a minority one, both as a means of mobilising its core support and of differentiation in the political marketplace. For the post-Communist Polish left this was secularism and resistance to the Catholic nationalism of the right.